March Snow in North Carolina

As of 10:30 this morning we still have a few flurries in the air but otherwise the snow is probably over. We got about 3" (8 cm) of snow in all which is a big deal in North Carolina. Folks further west got quite a bit more than we did. In this area schools are closed, events have been canceled and businesses delayed opening. As I mentioned yesterday people up north find this funny. In New York or Wisconsin 3" of snow is no big deal. Here it dominates the news.

One thing for certain is that it is cold with temperatures likely to stay below freezing today. Right now it's 29°F (-2°C) and it is expected to drop to 13°F (-11°C) tonight. Roads will probably become quite icy in time for the morning commute tomorrow.


The photos were taken by my housemate in the backyard this morning taken around 8:30 this morning. It is pretty around here and the coffee is hot.

Snow Again! (...or a conspiracy to sell more bread and milk)

Back in January we got a little over 5" (13 cm) of snow. The picture above is what my street looked like after a plow came through. Looks pretty, right? My housemate and I thought so and we went out for a walk and she took some pictures. We get a snowstorm like this maybe once every three to five years where I live. They predicted a second big storm last month but all we got was a dusting.

Actually they predict several of these events every year but most never materialize. My housemate claims to believe this is a conspiracy concocted by retailers and meteorologists to sell more bread and milk. As I noted last November supermarkets are jam packed before every would-be snowstorm and they always sell out most all of their bread and milk.

Well... depending on which media outlet or meteorologist you believe we should be getting anywhere from 2" to 8" (8cm to 20cm) of snow tonight and tomorrow. Right now it's just raining but this is supposed to become snow and, by North Carolina standards, lots of it, as in enough to paralyze the area.

Yes, folks who live up north in snowy climes or came from the north like I did find it all very humorous. It's funny until you see the locals try to drive on snow or ice. Then it's not so funny and you want to stay home as much or more than they do.

Anyway, I did go to the market today and yes, they were busy. They still had plenty of bread and milk. I guess there is less panic buying during a depression. (Yes, I still believe our "economic crisis" or "most severe recession in 70 years" is really a depression. More on that in upcoming posts.)

Will it snow? Probably. Will we get lots of snow? Who knows. They're even predicting "thundersnow", a thunderstorm with snow instead of rain. I've never seen that, even when I lived up north.

In the meanwhile here is another pretty picture from January taken a few minutes later during our walk a bit futher up my street:


It wasn't quite as pleasant a walk at this point. We'll see if tonight and tomorrow bring more of the same. If they do I'll try to get some more pictures.

Netbooks Become Ubiquitous and Linux Becomes Mainstream

Last Tuesday I took my ferret Chin Soon to her vet. While I was waiting I pulled my Sylvania g Netbook Meso out of its case to get some writing done. When the vet came in she commented on my "cute little netbook" and asked me if it was an Acer. Hers, it turns out, is an Acer and mine looks quite similar.

I read the reviews last year where people claimed that netbooks looked more like portable DVD players than computers. Well... nobody has mistaken mine for a DVD player. Lots of people recognize it as a netbook. I keep running into more and more people, both in the real world and online who have taken the plunge and bought themselves a little netbook. Many, like my ferrets' vet, are intelligent, professional people but are by no means technology professionals or even particularly technically inclined.

16 million netbooks have sold so far with growth estimated at 60% per year. I expect it could be higher that that. Netbooks are the least expensive new computers on the market in what is now a seriously troubled worldwide economy. Cool new technologies tend to snowball when they catch on. I've found I can do everything with my netbook that I could do with a conventional PC. Others will discover the same. Netbooks probably won't be as ubiquitous as cell phones but they will turn up in more and more places with more and more ordinary, non technical users.

Yes, the vet's Acer runs Windows. While the vast majority of new netbooks will be sold with either Windows XP or Windows 7, a substantial minority will continue to be preloaded with Linux. Millions of people have been introduced to Linux through netbooks and are satisfied with it. Educated consumers who learn that Linux, which requires fewer system resources, will run faster and comes with a wide variety of software preinstalled will choose Linux.

Despite the posts by various so-called tech journalists who always cheerlead for Microsoft claiming that Windows has "kicked Linux to the curb" or "crushed" Linux on netbooks, Microsoft's own estimate places Linux at 30% of current market share. Asustek's Samson Hu, quoted in the same Bloomberg article, places Linux on 30-40% of all EeePCs currently sold and expects Linux to maintain a 30% market share. Acer spokesman Henry Wang expects 20% of his Aspire One models to ship with Linux this year.

There were one million netbooks sold in 2007, all running Linux. There were 15 million sold last year. Assuming that Microsoft has no reason to deflate its own sales figures or inflate Linux numbers then the 30% figure becomes a good, conservative estimate of Linux netbook market share in 2008. That would make 4.2 million more Linux machines sold. Estimates for 2010 are as high as 29 million units. I've seen similar estimates for 2009. Let's assume the total market share for Linux across the industry will fall somewhere between the two leaders, around 25%. That would mean 14.5 million more new preloaded Linux boxes over the next two years, putting the total number since the summer of 2007 at 19.7 million.

I'm sure the Windows cheerleading section will be happy to point out that three times that number will run a Microsoft operating system and this will be touted as another great victory for Windows. Of course, these are the same folks who just a year ago were claiming Linux was insignificant in the consumer market with a less than one percent share of preloaded systems. Tell me again how going from less than 1% to 30% in the fastest growing segment of the consumer PC market is a crushing defeat for Linux and a great victory for Microsoft. Sorry, but I don't see it.

Consumers now are aware they have a choice and Linux has gone mainstream. Oh, and speaking of things snowballing, how many of those 19.7 million Linux netbook users will also choose Linux for a desktop or conventional notebook? How many will show Linux to their friends, family, or neighbors? How many of those friends, family, or neighbors may then make the same Linux choice? The results for an OS that's been "crushed" or "kicked to the curb" might be quite impressive indeed.

The Home Computer In 2004 (As Imagined In 1954)

Please click on the image to see this in all its glory and to read the caption. Yep, that teletype interface sure makes it easy to use, doesn't it?

Thanks to WinDoze on the Vector Linux forum for digging up this gem.

More Kudos To J&R Music World

In my last post I wrote about the premature failure of my Sylvania g Netbook. I also noted that the dealer, J&R Music World of New York City, offered an immediate exchange. I called to follow up this morning and I should have my replacement on the way very shortly. I also am being reimbursed for the shipping and insurance charges to return the netbook. In addition the price has dropper by $40 since I ordered mine and I am, in fact, receiving a $40 credit as well. When all is said and done I will have paid $239 for the computer, a price that is still available today.

First, kudos to J&R Music World for their outstanding customer service. Second, if the new computer works as expected I will have gotten a very capable little laptop for a truly minuscule price. $239 for a system with a 1.2GHz processor, 1GB of RAM, and a 30GB hard drive is impossible to beat. Oh, and yes, it runs Linux.

The Netbook Experience Is A Little Less Shiny Right Now

During the holidays I received some Hanukkah gelt from family specifically earmarked for buying myself a new computer. The Toshiba laptop I'm writing this on is six years old now, it's slow by today's standards and it has developed a highly intermittent harware problem. Sometimes, out of the blue, it will shut itself off for no apparent reason. Since having a reliable and portable computer is vital for me to make a living right now a replacement was the best gift I could possibly get. A netbook seemed like the perfect solution to me and I ordered the one that seemed to give me the most power for the least money in a very small and lightweight case: a Sylvania g Netbook.

For the first couple of weeks I was thrilled with the little laptop. I was less than pleased with the stock gOS Linux implementation but once I replaced it with a Linux distribution that actually had the proper support and drivers for the hardware I was really, really happy. I used the little Sylvania for everything. Then, like the Toshiba, it started having an intermittent problem. It would lock up for no apparent reason. I went back to the stock gOS configuration and it still locked hard at random times.

I bought the netbook from J&R Music World in New York City via Amazon.com. Kudos to J&R for immediately authorizing an exchange and promising that they would ship a replacement within 24-48 hours of receiving my defective unit. J&R is a long established brick and mortar store that I shopped at when I lived in New York. They have an excellent reputation for customer service and it seems to be well earned so far. They also had some of the best prices on netbooks when I shopped for mine. So... the replacement should be here next week some time.

In the meanwhile I'm back on my old computer. Having worked on the Sylvania for two weeks this one really does seem slow now despite only a small difference in the processor (1.2GHz Via C-7M ULV in the netbook vs. 1GHz Intel Celeron in this one). Of course the fact that the netbook had twice the memory (1 GB vs. 512MB RAM) is probably a big part of the performance difference.

Back in the 1980s I did work for a major electronic manufacturer. I learned back then that 90% of electronic failures happen in the first 5% of service life. What happened with my netbook is just plain bad luck. It could have happened with a Dell or an HP or an Asus netbook. In any case it would have been handled promptly under warranty. I certainly don't blame Sylvania at this point. I really have nothing to complain about. OTOH, it's always frustrating to have something new fail like this. For me, temporarily, the shine is off the netbook experience.

I have written a detailed review of the Sylvania g Netbook for O'Reilly Broadcast but for the moment I'm not publishing it. I want to make sure the replacement works as it should before I publish my opinions on a large public tech forum. I expect the review will go out pretty much unchanged but... Yeah, things just aren't shiny right now.

Happy Holidays!

I wanted to take a minute and wish everyone a very happy holiday season. Please pick the greeting that's right for you:

Happy Hanukkah!
Merry Christmas!
Happy Holidays!